After the last two weeks have been running very relevant economic indicators for the major economies, the next days foresee is particularly interesting, focused on expectations for the monetary policy of the Fed and the Bank of England and the evolution of prices in May of major economies and the release of the first confidence po box indicators for June.
In the United po box States, the main highlight of the week will be the meeting of the Committee of Monetary Policy of the Fed (FOMC), scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday, after which is expected po box to be announced maintaining the benchmark interest rate at 0, 25% and the reduction of 10 billion dollars of the monthly amount po box of asset purchases (quantitative po box easing) to 35 billion dollars.
To confirm maintaining the pace of withdrawal of stimulus, both Treasuries purchases as Mortgage Backed-Securities would reduce by 5 billion to 20 billion and 15 billion respectively. With the reduction in quantitative easing mode-cruise, po box foreseeing its completion in the middle of the second half will be particularly important to consider, po box in a statement on Wednesday, the forecasts of the different members of the FOMC on economic growth, inflation and the evolution of interest rates, which may provide some clues about the next steps to be adopted by the Fed in terms of monetary po box policy.
In terms of economic indicators, will be known, on Monday, the numbers of industrial po box production in May, which should show a recovery of productive activity, in line with the increase recorded by the ISM Manufacturing index. The week will also be marked by the data of the housing market, with the publication on Monday NAHB confidence index of entrepreneurs po box in the sector and June, on Tuesday, statistics of sales of new housing and new building permits in May.
Also on Tuesday will be known the inflation numbers May, for which we expect a stabilization. The confirmed to expectations, the rate of core inflation (which excludes the prices of food and fuel) should remain at 1.8% year on year, which corresponds to a monthly increase of 0.2%.
In the Eurozone, Eurostat will confirm, this morning, the decline in the annual inflation rate in May, from 0.7% to 0.5%. Tuesday will be known the ZEW expectations index for the German economy and, on Friday, will be known the evolution of the confidence index of European consumers in June, determined by the Commission. Given the markedly positive nature of the latest economic indicators, both indices should show an improvement, suggesting an increase in agents' confidence in the recovery of the euro economy.
Finally, in the UK, especially the publication, on Wednesday, the minutes of the last monetary policy po box meeting of the Bank of England, through which one can analyze the opinions of several members of the Monetary Policy Committee about the current economic climate the country. In a context of strong growth po box of the real economy, the labor market recovery and low inflationary pressures, are a high market expectations about the timing for the start of the base rate increase process, which takes the analysis of the minutes of special interest.
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